LONDON — Bitcoin faces a potentially turbulent week as about US$10 billion of options on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options platform, are set to expire on June 26 in Singapore, raising the risk of amplified price moves in a market already weakened by fading institutional demand and adverse macroeconomic forces.
Most of the expiring contracts are bullish calls while the cryptocurrency has been drifting lower, creating scope for traders to shift toward defensive or bearish positions, said Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit. The expiring options account for roughly 37 percent of Deribit’s open interest, making the event unusually concentrated ahead of a typically thin quarter-end and summer liquidity period.
Bitcoin fell to US$59,023 in New York on June 24, its lowest since October 2024, before recovering to about US$61,650 in London on June 25. It remains more than 50 percent below its all-time high and is trading beneath its 200-week moving average, a technical signal often associated with prolonged downtrends.
Put-to-call ratios of around 0.83 indicate more bets remain on price gains, yet much of the call open interest is now out of the money, while puts cluster between US$60,000–65,000 and US$70,000–75,000, boosting the likelihood that bearish positions could pay off if prices slide further.
“Expiry mechanics clear positioning; they do not set direction,” said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, but he warned that concentrated expiries in thin markets can produce outsized moves that later mean-revert once dealer hedges unwind. The market’s resilience will likely be tested in the first full week of July after leveraged positions and quarterly books adjust.
Broader pressures compound the risks: US-listed bitcoin funds saw nearly US$3 billion of net outflows in June to date, Strategy Inc, a major corporate holder, faces investor scrutiny, and hawkish Federal Reserve signals alongside higher Treasury yields are drawing capital away from yield-less assets such as Bitcoin. “Under conditions of contracting liquidity, BTC typically does not fare so well,” said Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund.