Italy’s Birth Rate Set to Hit New Record Low in 2024, National Statistics Office Reports

ROME — Italy’s birth rate is projected to reach a new record low in 2024, according to a report released by the national statistical bureau, ISTAT, on Monday. The country is experiencing its 16th consecutive annual decline in births, marking the lowest number of newborns since Italy’s unification in 1861.

From January to July 2024, there were 4,600 fewer births compared to the same period last year, representing a 2.1% drop, ISTAT reported. This continued downward trend follows a 3.4% decrease in 2023, when Italy saw only 379,890 births, equating to roughly six newborns per thousand residents.

The ongoing decline is a cause for national concern, with successive Italian governments recognizing the country’s falling birth rate as a critical issue. Despite numerous promises and initiatives aimed at reversing the trend, no government has yet succeeded in halting the drop.

ISTAT’s data also highlight Italy’s dwindling fertility rate, which stands at just 1.2 children per woman in 2024. This is far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. The country’s declining demographics are expected to pose significant challenges, especially in terms of economic growth and public finances. A report from Scope Ratings earlier this month noted that Italy has the worst demographic outlook in Europe for economic growth potential between 2023 and 2040, with its rapidly aging population threatening to strain the country’s fiscal sustainability.

Other findings from ISTAT show that in 2023, Italian women had their first child at an average age of 31, consistent with 2022. Additionally, 42.4% of babies were born to unmarried women, up from 41.5% the previous year.

The demographic crisis has raised concerns about Italy’s long-term future, with economic experts warning that the low birth rate, combined with the country’s aging population, could further exacerbate Italy’s already low employment rate—the lowest in the European Union, according to Eurostat data.