NEW DELHI/OTTAWA – The escalating diplomatic standoff between India and Canada, marked by the expulsion of senior diplomats from both countries, may offer short-term political gains for Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau, according to analysts.
Canada expelled six Indian diplomats on Monday, accusing them of involvement in the murder of a Sikh separatist leader and suggesting broader targeting of Indian dissidents in Canada. India swiftly retaliated by expelling six Canadian diplomats, sending bilateral relations into a deep freeze.
For both leaders, the confrontation could bolster their domestic political standing. Modi, in his third term and facing political challenges after a recent electoral setback, may see his image as a staunch defender of national security reinforced. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, a former Indian foreign secretary, suggested that the Indian public will view the government’s actions as standing firm against foreign pressure, strengthening Modi’s position.
Meanwhile, in Canada, where Trudeau’s Liberal Party is struggling in the polls ahead of a national election due by October 2025, the diplomatic spat has shifted attention away from internal party strife. Trudeau, facing calls to step down from some legislators, has positioned himself as a defender of Canadian sovereignty. This stance, backed by opposition leaders, could temporarily boost his image.
However, the longer-term political impact, particularly for Trudeau, may be limited. While the Sikh community, a key political constituency in Canada, has supported the government’s actions, domestic issues like the economy and rising living costs are likely to overshadow the diplomatic conflict in the lead-up to the next election.
For Modi, the crisis helps consolidate his image as a strong leader focused on India’s territorial integrity, a theme that resonates with his voter base. For Trudeau, the immediate focus on standing up to foreign interference could offer a reprieve, but analysts suggest the political boost may be fleeting as domestic challenges continue to mount.