China-India Border Deal Marks Progress Ahead of Xi-Modi Meeting, but Trust Issues Persist

BEIJING/NEW DELHI — The recent agreement between China and India on patrolling their disputed Himalayan border marks a positive step after a four-year military standoff, but analysts warn that deep-rooted trust issues remain unresolved. The deal comes ahead of a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, set to take place on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.

The Xi-Modi meeting will be the first substantial talks between the two leaders since 2020, after brief interactions at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in 2023. The agreement is seen as a symbolic move to defuse tensions over the long-standing border issue, which escalated into a deadly clash in 2020 in Ladakh’s Galway Valley, leaving 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead.

Professor Lin Minwang of Fudan University’s Institute of South Asia Studies described the deal as a “logical point” in the relationship, suggesting that both nations are weighing the costs of continuing the standoff. “The hardest and most pressing issue is now resolved, which is of symbolic importance,” said Prof Lin.

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar confirmed that the agreement restores the situation to its pre-2020 status and completes the “disengagement process” along the contested border. Patrolling and grazing activities, which had been suspended, will resume, bringing some relief to local communities.

Despite this progress, trust remains fragile. Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi emphasized the need to prevent encroachments and expressed caution over Chinese intentions along the border. He added that trust-building would be a gradual process as the patrolling resumes.

The geopolitical landscape also complicates the relationship. India’s growing closeness with the United States and its membership in the Quad—alongside Japan and Australia—have caused friction with Beijing, which views the group as an “Asian NATO” aimed at curbing China’s influence.

Analysts caution that while the border deal is a breakthrough, deeper challenges in Sino-Indian relations persist. Dr. He An of the Grandview Institution in Beijing noted that other unresolved tensions, such as China’s displeasure over the opening of a Taiwanese government office in Mumbai, could hamper further progress. “While the border agreement is a positive step, we need to view it from a bigger picture. The opening of the Taiwan office, that’s challenging China’s bottom line,” Dr. He said.

In addition, India faces economic challenges with China, including a widening trade deficit that reached $85 billion in 2023-2024, with Chinese exports dominating India’s markets. China’s growing presence in South Asia, particularly in countries like Nepal and the Maldives, is another area of concern for New Delhi.

Professor Harsh V. Pant, vice-president of Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, emphasized that the border issue is just one dimension of the broader challenges facing Sino-Indian relations. “While this agreement opens up the possibility of a newly configured relationship, the long-term challenges still remain,” he said.

As Xi and Modi prepare for their meeting, the border deal represents a cautious step towards rebuilding trust, but both nations will need to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and lingering mistrust to achieve a lasting rapprochement.

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