DUBAI – Iran’s ruling elite is fracturing under the weight of an existential war, with deep divisions between hardliners and pragmatists erupting after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing last week amid relentless U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The bombardments threaten the Islamic Republic’s survival, pushing the Revolutionary Guards to grab greater control despite losing top commanders in targeted killings. Sources inside Iran told Reuters that surviving leaders are showing clear strains, speaking anonymously due to the risks.
Clerics are rushing to name a new supreme leader, with a decision possibly coming Sunday, but doubts linger over whether Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, a Guards-backed frontrunner, can unite factions or command obedience from the powerful IRGC, as noted by Middle East Institute fellow Alex Vatanka.
Tensions boiled over President Masoud Pezeshkian’s pledge not to attack Gulf states following a week of strikes on their territory. Hardline cleric Hamid Rasai blasted it on social media as “unprofessional, weak and unacceptable,” forcing Pezeshkian into a public retreat by dropping the apology in a follow-up post.
While all leaders remain committed to defending the theocracy, strategic rifts are real, sources said – unlike past tactical differences used in Western talks. A Khamenei office insider revealed fury among Guards commanders, and a moderate ex-official lamented no one can match the late leader’s strategic grip.
Even the interim council, including Pezeshkian, judiciary head Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei and a Guardian Council cleric, shows cracks, with Mohseni-Ejei vowing continued heavy strikes on regional foes, directly clashing with the president’s conciliatory tone. Senior ayatollahs like Nouri Hamedani urged speeding up the leadership process via Fars News Agency to preserve unity.
Khamenei’s 36-year rule balanced factions under his iron authority, but his absence has unleashed suppressed divides as war tests the system.