SAN JOSE – Costa Rica’s ruling party candidate Laura Fernandez is on track to win the February 1 presidential election in the first round, polling at 40% support that could also deliver her party a legislative majority for the 2026–2030 term, according to a University of Costa Rica survey released Wednesday.
The 39-year-old former minister, a loyalist to President Rodrigo Chaves, has pledged policy continuity and promised to appoint him to a senior role, riding a wave of her mentor’s 58% approval rating despite his ineligibility for consecutive reelection.
Conducted January 12–16 with a three-percentage-point margin of error, the poll by the university’s Center for Research and Political Studies shows Fernandez reaching the threshold to avoid a runoff, mirroring trends in recent private surveys.
Opposition frontrunner Alvaro Ramos of the center-left National Liberation Party trails at just 8%, signaling weakness for the traditional establishment that Chaves aimed to dismantle with his anti-elite “peaceful revolution.”
Chaves, facing multiple complaints at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for alleged illegal campaign interference, has urged voters to extend his reforms, including constitutional changes and a tougher crackdown on soaring drug-related homicides, Costa Rica’s top public concern.
Fernandez echoes this hardline stance on crime while highlighting Chaves’ economic successes, his admiration for El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele as a security model, and close anti-narcotics ties with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
With over 3.7 million eligible voters and electoral officials pushing for higher turnout after 2022’s 40% abstention rate, analysts warn low participation could pave the way for the ruling party’s sweeping first-round triumph.