BRASILIA — Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race has raised questions about his continued influence and the cohesion of the right-wing coalition. The announcement came as Bolsonaro, barred from office since 2023 and serving a 27-year sentence for a failed coup, threw his support behind his son, stunning allies and triggering a plunge in financial markets.
Many investors had expected Bolsonaro to back a more seasoned candidate, such as São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, to challenge incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. However, Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy has met with a lukewarm response from key conservative figures, with Freitas only offering public support after 48 hours of silence. The tepid reaction and market unease have highlighted the fragmented nature of the opposition less than a year before the October 2026 election.
Political analysts suggest Bolsonaro’s endorsement may even be counterproductive, with half of Brazilians saying they would not vote for a candidate backed by him, according to a recent poll. Flavio Bolsonaro trails Lula by double digits in simulated matchups, while Freitas and other potential candidates also lag significantly behind.
Senator Bolsonaro has attempted to position himself as a more moderate and balanced figure, reaching out to centrist leaders and business figures, but defining his economic agenda and assembling a team will take months. His candidacy faces further challenges from ideological splinter groups within Bolsonaro’s former coalition, with some younger conservatives vowing to field alternative candidates.
Experts warn that a divided right could leave the opposition ill-prepared to challenge Lula, potentially jeopardizing their chances in the upcoming election.