PARIS — Scientists at Institut Pasteur have issued a stark warning: the bird-flu virus currently circulating among wild birds, poultry and mammals might mutate into a form capable of spreading widely among humans, and if that happens, it could trigger a pandemic far more deadly than COVID-19.
The strain at the center of concern is the highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as “bird flu.” Over recent years it has already forced the mass culling of hundreds of millions of birds, disrupted food supplies, and pushed up prices. Still, human infections have remained rare so far.
But the real danger, experts say, lies ahead. According to Marie Anne Rameix Welti, the medical director of Pasteur’s respiratory infections centre, what we fear most is the virus adapting to mammals, especially humans, acquiring the capacity for human-to-human transmission. If that happens, “that virus would be a pandemic virus.”
One of the biggest worries is that most people have no immunity against the bird flu strain. Unlike regular seasonal flu strains (like H1 or H3), which many have encountered before, H5 bird flu remains new to the human immune system. That’s similar to how COVID-19 emerged.
What makes this threat even more frightening is that flu viruses don’t just target the vulnerable or elderly. They can, in worst-case scenarios, strike down otherwise healthy individuals, including children. That means a bird-flu pandemic could exact a heavy toll across all ages.
Still, there is a sliver of hope. According to Pasteur’s experts, the global health community is now better prepared than it was at the outset of COVID-19. Vaccine candidates specifically targeting bird flu are already in development, and stocks of effective antiviral drugs are being kept ready.
At the same time, experts emphasize that the current risk of a human pandemic remains low. As long as the virus remains confined to birds and animals, the danger to everyday life is minimal. Authorities advise that common activities, like walking through forests, handling poultry carefully, eating chicken and eggs, continue as usual for now.
This warning from the Institut Pasteur isn’t meant to cause panic. Instead it’s a reminder: the world must remain vigilant. As the virus continues to evolve, early detection, scientific readiness, and public awareness can, hopefully, prevent the next global health catastrophe before it begins.