MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin said on October 1 that the world is passing through a dangerously volatile phase and cautioned Western powers against escalating the Ukraine conflict by threatening Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, which Moscow has vowed to defend with all means, including nuclear weapons, if necessary. Speaking at the Valdai International Discussion Club in Moscow, Putin stated that any direct attack on Russian territory, specifically naming Kaliningrad, which lies between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, would compel Russia to deploy its full arsenal without hesitation. “If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation… the question of deploying all the weapons at our country’s disposal will, of course, inevitably and immediately be on the agenda,” he said, adding: “This is inevitable.” His remarks followed a formal diplomatic note, acknowledged by NATO, in which Russia warned it was prepared to use nuclear weapons if the alliance attempted to cut off or isolate Kaliningrad. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte responded by stressing that the alliance is defensive in nature and that nuclear threats are unhelpful.
Putin acknowledged that Russia would face a NATO bloc “twice our size” in any broader confrontation but argued that Moscow’s unique weapons give it a decisive edge. “No one else possesses the kind of weapons that Russia has today. That is our competitive advantage,” he said, while noting that France and the United Kingdom are also nuclear powers. Kaliningrad, a heavily militarised Russian territory slightly larger than Connecticut, has become a focal point of tension as European governments accuse Moscow of intensifying a “hybrid war” on the continent through sabotage and arson—allegations Russia denies. Putin framed the current crisis as a product of overconfidence and arrogance, warning that retaliatory cycles can swiftly reach a catastrophic tipping point. “The logic of escalating, increasingly harsh retaliatory measures leads to a fatal point of no return,” he said, adding that the world must recognise how quickly an irreversible moment can arrive. He stressed that the existence of arsenals capable of destroying all life or causing global catastrophe means such weapons cannot be assumed never to be used. “Can we be certain that these weapons will never be used? Well, of course not. We must bear this in mind and avoid such an outcome,” he said.
On diplomacy, Putin said he was open to a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump if a proper agenda were prepared in advance. On the battlefield, he ruled out halting Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets in the Black Sea region but acknowledged that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have cost Russia about 1% of its GDP, prompting Moscow to respond in kind. While casting Western assistance for deep Ukrainian strikes inside Russia as a growing threat, Putin said Moscow does not plan to attack European arms factories supplying Ukraine “tomorrow.”