OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys broad public backing after halting trade talks with the United States and imposing mirror tariffs, but economists and pollsters warn that popular approval could wane as the economic fallout from an escalating trade dispute becomes clearer.
An Angus Reid poll showed 76% of Canadians approved of Carney’s decision to suspend negotiations in response to U.S. tariff measures and last-minute demands from Washington. The government announced dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on US$20 billion of U.S. goods and a C$7.5 billion (US$5.41 billion) support package to shield businesses and workers. Still, 40% of Canadians said they feared for their jobs, reflecting unease about future economic pain.
Canada depends on U.S. buyers for roughly 70% of its exports, and economists say the country cannot outlast a prolonged U.S. trade offensive. “Carney’s leverage will start to diminish if this escalating trade war starts to show up in palpable increases in unemployment, factory shutdowns and declining income,” said Julian Karaguesian, a former finance ministry adviser and McGill University economist. Trevor Tombe of the University of Calgary warned the tariffs could eventually cost up to 90,000 jobs, and Canada’s central bank has suggested a U.S. withdrawal from the USMCA trade pact would likely push Canada toward recession.
The administration in Washington altered terms of a tentative deal at the last minute, adjusting auto tariff rules, curtailing French-language requirements and limiting Ottawa’s ability to pursue independent trade accords, moves Carney has framed as an “attack” on Canadian sovereignty. President Donald Trump defended the changes as typical last-minute bargaining.
Carney has sought to rally middle powers to diversify Canada’s trade and security ties away from heavy U.S. dependence, even as Washington’s actions mark one of the tensest periods in modern Canada–U.S. relations. Indian analysts and polling experts say Canadians have rallied around a narrative casting Trump as the antagonist, with public willingness to accept short-term sacrifices to push back. “It’s like any kind of war mentality where you see people are willing to make sacrifices to press back against the U.S.,” said Dan Arnold, formerly of Trudeau’s team.
But political dynamics in the United States could undercut Canada’s stance. If Republicans hold Congress after the U.S. midterm elections, Carney’s bargaining position may erode, prolonging protectionist pressure from Washington. Even a Democratic swing, some analysts say, might not curb Trump’s unilateral use of executive authority to impose tariffs.
For now, Canada’s economy shows resilience: employment improved and second-quarter growth is expected to rebound. Yet the longer-term picture is risky. Canada already faces high food inflation among G7 nations and persistent housing-affordability strains. “Carney’s clock is already running out,” Karaguesian said. “At some point when more and more people are losing their jobs and visiting food banks, the public will say, ‘we know this is not your fault, but go make a deal with Trump.’”
Ottawa has accepted offers of humanitarian and technical assistance from allies and continues to weigh options for broadening export markets, but officials acknowledge that sustaining public support will depend on limiting visible economic damage in the coming months.